…Data Study Says Fulani Terror Groups Lead Nigeria’s Death Toll as World ‘Misreads’ Violence
A six-year data study by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) says Nigeria’s deadliest militias are escaping global attention, with violence linked to Fulani terror groups far outpacing Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).
The report says 79,323 people were killed in Nigeria between 2020-2025, an average of seven attacks per day. More than 42,000 were innocent civilians, according to the report released by the data scientists.
In a statement signed by Frans Vierhout, Senior Research Analyst of the ORFA and made available to Newsmen on Tuesday, says Boko Haram and ISWAP, the terror groups most blamed for violence, put together carried out only 12% of civilian killings, with Boko Haram 8%, and ISWAP 4%.
The Researchers at ORFA said they spent years cross-referencing attack patterns, with up to 60 data elements recorded for each violence incident. The findings the group said, overturn longstanding assumptions about who is responsible for Nigeria’s bloodshed.
Other participants in the unwarranted bloodshed in the country have a far higher body count, with “Militias categorised as ‘Fulani Terror Groups’ killed 44% of all civilians, four times the killing of Boko Haram and ISWAP combined.”
ORFA said they are very careful to distinguished between armed Fulani terror groups and the Fulani people as a the vast majority of whom are not involved in violence.
The organisation insisted that the “Western preoccupation with Boko Haram is misleading. The data makes this very difficult to ignore.
“We look at how killing occurs. Who they target, where they operate, the seasonal fluctuations of killings and the evidence points strongly in one direction.
“Violence linked to Fulani militias is the dominant force behind Nigeria’s death toll. The Western preoccupation with Boko Haram is, at best, misleading. Nigeria is incubating a terror network which the outside world has yet to acknowledge.”
Among their key findings figures from the six-year study include, “79,323 people killed in terror-related violence in the study period, an average of 36 people each day. 42,033 killings were civilians, Security Forces and Terror Groups make up 37,290 deaths. Boko Haram is not the deadliest group, Fulani Terror Groups killed 44% of civilians (18,577); Boko Haram and ISWAP combined killed 12% (4,941).
“Twice as many Christians killed as Muslims; 28,551 Christians against 13,224 Muslims. When Christian losses are examined in terms of state populations, Christians were killed at 4.4 times the rate of Muslims in affected states a huge proportional loss to local populations”
“75% of civilians killed in community attacks, raids on farming settlements involving abduction, rape and property destruction. Abductions: 34,773 civilians abducted. ‘Fulani Terror Groups’ and ‘Unidentified Terror Groups’ carried out 43% and 49% of abductions,” respectively.
The ORFA’s field research indicates Christian and Muslim hostages are treated differently: “Muslim captives face lower ransoms and less violence; Christians face higher ransoms, greater likelihood of execution; Christian women face sexual violence.”
The ORFA data project also sheds new light on mass kidnappings. 34,773 civilians were abducted over the six years the vast majority seized during armed raids on their own homes.
“The number of Muslims kidnapped rose steeply, bringing the religious communities close to parity. Christian abductions numbered 15,932 and Muslims 15,272 in total over the period. Yet field research drawing on survivor testimony reveals deeper religious dynamics,” says Frans Vierhout, Senior Research Analyst of the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa.
The alleged that Christian hostages face higher ransoms, longer negotiation periods, worse violence and greater risk of execution, even after their families have paid in full; “Christian female hostages face extreme sexual violence, forced conversion and forced marriage.
“The field research reveals a lesser value is assigned to a Christian life,’ said Steven Kefas, Senior Research Analyst and author of ‘Captivity by Creed: the religious sorting system nobody talks about.”
According to him, “From the moment of capture, Muslim and Christian hostages enter different realities. It is not about individual captors. It is a system consistent across multiple states, armed groups, and multiple years of survivor testimony.”
The ORFA 6-Year Study authors urge governments and international bodies to engage closely with the data released today. They urge a recognition that “without a full accounting of the religious dimensions of violence in Nigeria, attempts to find solutions remain incomplete.”
